Long Thompson slightly ahead in poll
Long Thompson slightly ahead in poll
By Niki Kelly
The Journal Gazette
INDIANAPOLIS - Jill Long Thompson apparently leads Jim Schellinger in the Democratic gubernatorial race and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton slightly trails Sen. Barack Obama for president, according to a poll released Friday by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics.
Voters also felt the economy to be the most important issue facing both the state and the country.
The poll was conducted April 14-16 on behalf of the center by SurveyUSA, a national pollster known for using an automated system.
Among 578 likely Democratic primary voters, Long Thompson is leading Schellinger 47 percent to 41 percent with a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
Thompson's lead is strongest among voters who identified themselves as strong Democrats, while independents who lean Democratic favor Schellinger.
As far as demographics, Schellinger is ahead among men, but Long Thompson has a much larger lead among women. Schellinger has a slight advantage among voters younger than 50, while Long Thompson has a much larger lead among those older than 50.
As for race, Long Thompson has a slight lead among whites and a substantial lead among blacks.
The poll also surveyed on the performance of GOP Gov. Mitch Daniels. On a scale of 1 to 10 - with 1 being the worst - his rating was 5.4.
When asked whom they would vote for between Daniels and Schellinger, the incumbent led 47 percent to 46 percent. Similarly, Daniels led Long Thompson 48 percent to 47 percent.
"Given the similarities in performance between both Democratic candidates against Daniels, this election is shaping up to be a referendum on Governor Mitch Daniels," the Downs Center release said of the poll results.
Both campaigns have generally shunned SurveyUSA's methodology, often referred to as robo-calls.
"We considered vendors carefully and selected SurveyUSA for two reasons," said Andrew Downs, head of the Downs Center. "First, they provided research to support their methodology. Second, they have had a good track record this primary season throughout the United States."
Jennifer Wagner, spokeswoman for Schellinger, said she was encouraged by his strength among younger voters because that group has been especially active this year because of the presidential race.
"From a general standpoint polls are a snapshot in time, and the only one that matters is the one on May 6," she said. "We have 18 days to go, and it's still a really tight race. This is a change year, and Jim is a change candidate, and I think ultimately that will be the message that carries him to victory."
On the presidential side, Obama is apparently leading Clinton 50 percent to 45 percent with a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
Howard Wolfson, national communications director for the Clinton campaign, said she is an underdog in Indiana, especially along the Illinois border where Obama has a "bit of a home-court advantage."
"Indiana is going to be very competitive," he said. "We have an opportunity to make our case and hope to do well."
Clinton's most solid support comes from the most-partisan Democrats with weaker Democratic identifiers, independents and most Republicans tending to support Obama.
Obama outperforms Clinton with Indiana men, while women are for Clinton - but within the margin of error.
For likely registered voters deciding between Republican Sen. John McCain and Obama, McCain got 51 percent to Obama's 44 percent. McCain would best Clinton 53 percent to 42 percent.
Adding Sen. Evan Bayh to the ticket as a vice presidential candidate would not deliver the state for Clinton at this point.
Only 4 percent of Hoosiers would switch from McCain to Clinton if Bayh was her running mate; some of this gain would be lost by the 2 percent of Clinton supporters who would support McCain if Bayh were chosen.